The Brazilian Election for Dummies

It is all about anger and change, stupid!

This blog doesn’t endorse Jair Bolsonaro, his views go against the liberal and feminist values of this blogger.  Foreign media have rightly described him as a far-right firebrand, a Brazilian Trump, a Brazilian Duterte and worse, a tropical clone of Hitler.  The media publicized his inflammatory viewpoints on women, blacks, gays, democracy and his yearning for the past military dictatorship.  All this is true.  Conversely, Haddad, the Worker Party (PT) candidate is celebrated as a decent and able politician.  While the foreign media admonishes the Brazilians not to vote for Bolsonaro, it failed or was unwilling to understand why he will almost certainly be elected on Sunday, October 28.  How did we get there?

1-This election is all about anger (violence, corruption, worse-ever economic recession, lack of opportunities and unemployment) and change (get rid of self-serving parties and their corrupt politicians).  Two years ago, congressman and former army captain Bolsonaro attracted the attention of the urban middle class with his simple authoritarian message of fighting corruption and crime.  Brazil counts 35 parties, however 30 of them only represent 10% of the ballots.  The three main parties, MDB (Brazilian Democratic movement), PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy party) and PT (Lulas’ Worker party) are all tainted by corruption.  Since 2002, PSDB has traditionally been the opponent to the other two which were in the government coalition under PT leadership (until President Dilma Rousseff ’s impeachment.)

2- Bolsonaro is a seven-term (27 years) unimaginative congressman who was sitting outside the three main parties.  He was not implicated in the major corruption scandals (Mensalẩo and Lava Jato/Car Wash) which mostly shook PT and MDB.  With Lula in jail (guilty of graft and money laundering) and legally barred from running, PT selected Fernando Haddad (nicknamed “Lula diet” by talk show John Oliver) to run on his behalf.  He is an intellectual, former university professor and former mayor of Sẩo Paulo and a moderate among his PT peers.  The PT’s choice of candidate has not allayed the fear of many Brazilians, namely that Lula will continue to pull the strings from jail or could be pardoned as soon as Haddad is elected.  Brazilians don’t trust Haddad’s campaign promises because they are too moderate for the ideology of mainstream PT. 

                                                                         Pro-Bolsonaro

3- Being smaller than MDB, PT resorted to vote buying (Mensalẩo) and bribes (Lava Jato) to get its political agenda voted in congress.  Patronage-dependent, bribe-hooked and ideology-deficient, MDB was a king-maker earning plenty of dirty money for system sustainability.  This being said, many commentators point to its restraining but positive influence on Marxist PT, often bent on illiberal and authoritarian decisions.  Had PSDB been able or willing to oust its bad apples, and bring in new blood, the party could have been in a position to offer a democratic alternative to this bitter and deeply polarized left versus far-right run-off.  Recently, a New York Times opinion piece titled “Brazil’s Sad Choice” (October 21) wrote that it is a “sad day for democracy when disarray and disappointment drive voters to distraction[1] and open the door to offensive, crude and thuggish populists”.  Although Bolsonaro is all this, Brazilians know that PT has its share of powerful members who are far from being models of democratic virtue.  Anecdote apart, Lula and Bolsonaro have a common hero: both praised Hugo Cháves of Venezuela.  Bolsonaro praised his failed coup d’état and Lula his socialist policies!

4- From jail, Lula was leading the polls with 36% of voting intentions before being barred from running. PT support is still strong in the poor Nordeste (Northeast of Brazil) where a large proportion of the population receives the Bolsa Familia cash transfer.  Bolsa Familia has become a strong PT vote incentive in areas with few job opportunities, in other words an effective vote buying and patronage mechanism.  

                                                                                    Pro-Haddad

5- On the contrary, support for PT has crashed in slums (favelas) and in the rural regions of south-eastern Brazil.  Interestingly, in the first round of the presidential election, many former pro-Lula voters switched to Bolsonaro.  There are many reasons for this rejection.  One is the growth of the Evangelical church (about one in four Brazilians is Evangelical) which has a conservative and self-help message not aligned with PT ideology.  Moreover, the Brazilian middle class has become more conservative and “bourgeois”.  In spite of a noted liberal evolution, the traditional values of the patriarchal family remain strong.  Another reason is the disappointment of lower middle-class families (the C class of income: US$ 1000 to 2000/month).  They benefited from Lula’s golden years (2002-2010) but were the prime victims of the economic recession brought about by Dilma’s policies.  Last, but not least, these communities are the main victims of violence.  Last year, Brazil suffered 63 880 homicides mainly in low income areas.  Bolsonaro’s crack down on crime message is particularly welcome.  According to Ibope (an opinion and polling agency) Bolsonaro dominates the white vote compared to Haddad, and incredibly he also leads among the black and mixed-race voters with 47 % to Haddad’s 41%.

6- Social media has taken over mainstream information.  It is hugely popular in Brazil, one in two Brazilians uses WhatsApp, and like in other countries it has been used to disseminate fake news and lies.   For lack of public funds, Bolsonaro led his campaign on Facebook and WhatsApp.  Before the beginning of the campaign, his supporters were already very active on social media.  This week, both Facebook and WhatsApp have shut hundreds of pro-Bolsonaro accounts which were sending bulk messages against Haddad.  So far, no indication that Russia is meddling in the elections. 

7-The Economist magazine (Oct 20^th) wrote “But Haddad and the PT have probably left it too late to convince Brazilians that they have learned from their mistakes.” However, in light of the party’s track records, many people would believe them.  Brazilians want to continue the political clean-up and turn-over.  They are afraid that if elected Haddad and PT would stop the Lava Jato investigation.  Their yearning for change is a jump into the unknown and gives Bolsonaro the benefit of the doubt.  This blogger hopes that if Bolsonaro puts in action his most toxic rhetoric, Brazilians will invade the streets to demand change as they had done with success in the past.

Economist article https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/10/20/the-only-man-who-can-stop-jair-bolsonaro-from-becoming-brazils-president

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[1] I find the term rather condescending.